Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio

Atmospheric Evolution

Earth's atmosphere has evolved as volatile species cycle between the atmosphere, ocean, biomass and the solid Earth. The geochemical, biological and astrophysical processes that control atmospheric evolution are reviewed from an "Earth Systems" perspective, with a view not only to understanding the history of Earth, but also to generalizing to other solar system planets and exoplanets.Comment: 34 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Accepted as a chapter in "Encyclopaedia of Geochemistry", Editor Bill White, Springer-Nature, 201

A Closed-Form Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for a Quadratic Utility Function

In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed and no assumption on the distribution is imposed. All expressions are presented in terms of the conditional mean vectors and the conditional covariance matrices. If the multivariate process of the asset returns is independent it is shown that in the case without a riskless asset the solution is presented as a sequence of optimal portfolio weights obtained by solving the single-period Markowitz optimization problem. The process dynamics are included only in the shape parameter of the utility function. If a riskless asset is present then the multi-period optimal portfolio weights are proportional to the single-period solutions multiplied by time-varying constants which are depending on the process dynamics. Remarkably, in the case of a portfolio selection with the tangency portfolio the multi-period solution coincides with the sequence of the simple-period solutions. Finally, we compare the suggested strategies with existing multi-period portfolio allocation methods for real data.Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, changes: VAR(1)-CCC-GARCH(1,1) process dynamics and the analysis of increasing horizon are included in the simulation study, under revision in Annals of Operations Researc

Assaying Environmental Nickel Toxicity Using Model Nematodes

Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species

A theory of organizational readiness for change

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Change management experts have emphasized the importance of establishing organizational readiness for change and recommended various strategies for creating it. Although the advice seems reasonable, the scientific basis for it is limited. Unlike individual readiness for change, organizational readiness for change has not been subject to extensive theoretical development or empirical study. In this article, I conceptually define organizational readiness for change and develop a theory of its determinants and outcomes. I focus on the organizational level of analysis because many promising approaches to improving healthcare delivery entail collective behavior change in the form of systems redesign--that is, multiple, simultaneous changes in staffing, work flow, decision making, communication, and reward systems.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Organizational readiness for change is a multi-level, multi-faceted construct. As an organization-level construct, readiness for change refers to organizational members' shared resolve to implement a change (change commitment) and shared belief in their collective capability to do so (change efficacy). Organizational readiness for change varies as a function of how much organizational members value the change and how favorably they appraise three key determinants of implementation capability: task demands, resource availability, and situational factors. When organizational readiness for change is high, organizational members are more likely to initiate change, exert greater effort, exhibit greater persistence, and display more cooperative behavior. The result is more effective implementation.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>The theory described in this article treats organizational readiness as a shared psychological state in which organizational members feel committed to implementing an organizational change and confident in their collective abilities to do so. This way of thinking about organizational readiness is best suited for examining organizational changes where collective behavior change is necessary in order to effectively implement the change and, in some instances, for the change to produce anticipated benefits. Testing the theory would require further measurement development and careful sampling decisions. The theory offers a means of reconciling the structural and psychological views of organizational readiness found in the literature. Further, the theory suggests the possibility that the strategies that change management experts recommend are equifinal. That is, there is no 'one best way' to increase organizational readiness for change.</p

Advances in the role of sacral nerve neuromodulation in lower urinary tract symptoms

Sacral neuromodulation has been developed to treat chronic lower urinary tract symptoms, resistant to classical conservative therapy. The suspected mechanisms of action include afferent stimulation of the central nervous system and modulation of activity at the level of the brain. Typical neuromodulation is indicated both in overactivity and in underactivity of the lower urinary tract. In the majority of patients, a unilateral electrode in a sacral foramen and connected to a pulse generator is sufficient to achieve significant clinical results also on long term. In recent years, other urological indications have been explored

Hormonal signaling in cnidarians : do we understand the pathways well enough to know whether they are being disrupted?

Author Posting. © The Author, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecotoxicology 16 (2007): 5-13, doi:10.1007/s10646-006-0121-1.Cnidarians occupy a key evolutionary position as basal metazoans and are ecologically important as predators, prey and structure-builders. Bioregulatory molecules (e.g., amines, peptides and steroids) have been identified in cnidarians, but cnidarian signaling pathways remain poorly characterized. Cnidarians, especially hydras, are regularly used in toxicity testing, but few studies have used cnidarians in explicit testing for signal disruption. Sublethal endpoints developed in cnidarians include budding, regeneration, gametogenesis, mucus production and larval metamorphosis. Cnidarian genomic databases, microarrays and other molecular tools are increasingly facilitating mechanistic investigation of signaling pathways and signal disruption. Elucidation of cnidarian signaling processes in a comparative context can provide insight into the evolution and diversification of metazoan bioregulation. Characterizing signaling and signal disruption in cnidarians may also provide unique opportunities for evaluating risk to valuable marine resources, such as coral reefs

Maternal substance use and integrated treatment programs for women with substance abuse issues and their children: a meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The rate of women with substance abuse issues is increasing. Women present with a unique constellation of risk factors and presenting needs, which may include specific needs in their role as mothers. Numerous integrated programs (those with substance use treatment and pregnancy, parenting, or child services) have been developed to specifically meet the needs of pregnant and parenting women with substance abuse issues. This synthesis and meta-analysis reviews research in this important and growing area of treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched PsycINFO, MedLine, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Proquest Dissertations, Sociological Abstracts, and CINAHL and compiled a database of 21 studies (2 randomized trials, 9 quasi-experimental studies, 10 cohort studies) of integrated programs published between 1990 and 2007 with outcome data on maternal substance use. Data were summarized and where possible, meta-analyses were performed, using standardized mean differences (<it>d</it>) effect size estimates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the two studies comparing integrated programs to no treatment, effect sizes for urine toxicology and percent using substances significantly favored integrated programs and ranged from 0.18 to 1.41. Studies examining changes in maternal substance use from beginning to end of treatment were statistically significant and medium sized. More specifically, in the five studies measuring severity of drug and alcohol use, the average effect sizes were 0.64 and 0.40, respectively. In the four cohort studies of days of use, the average effect size was 0.52. Of studies comparing integrated to non-integrated programs, four studies assessed urine toxicology and two assessed self-reported abstinence. Overall effect sizes for each measure were not statistically significant (<it>d </it>= -0.09 and 0.22, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Findings suggest that integrated programs are effective in reducing maternal substance use. However, integrated programs were not significantly more effective than non-integrated programs. Policy implications are discussed with specific attention to the need for funding of high quality randomized control trials and improved reporting practices.</p

Predicting implementation from organizational readiness for change: a study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is widespread interest in measuring organizational readiness to implement evidence-based practices in clinical care. However, there are a number of challenges to validating organizational measures, including inferential bias arising from the halo effect and method bias - two threats to validity that, while well-documented by organizational scholars, are often ignored in health services research. We describe a protocol to comprehensively assess the psychometric properties of a previously developed survey, the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>Our objective is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the psychometric properties of the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment incorporating methods specifically to address threats from halo effect and method bias.</p> <p>Methods and Design</p> <p>We will conduct three sets of analyses using longitudinal, secondary data from four partner projects, each testing interventions to improve the implementation of an evidence-based clinical practice. Partner projects field the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment at baseline (n = 208 respondents; 53 facilities), and prospectively assesses the degree to which the evidence-based practice is implemented. We will conduct predictive and concurrent validities using hierarchical linear modeling and multivariate regression, respectively. For predictive validity, the outcome is the change from baseline to follow-up in the use of the evidence-based practice. We will use intra-class correlations derived from hierarchical linear models to assess inter-rater reliability. Two partner projects will also field measures of job satisfaction for convergent and discriminant validity analyses, and will field Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment measures at follow-up for concurrent validity (n = 158 respondents; 33 facilities). Convergent and discriminant validities will test associations between organizational readiness and different aspects of job satisfaction: satisfaction with leadership, which should be highly correlated with readiness, versus satisfaction with salary, which should be less correlated with readiness. Content validity will be assessed using an expert panel and modified Delphi technique.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We propose a comprehensive protocol for validating a survey instrument for assessing organizational readiness to change that specifically addresses key threats of bias related to halo effect, method bias and questions of construct validity that often go unexplored in research using measures of organizational constructs.</p

From staff-mix to skill-mix and beyond: towards a systemic approach to health workforce management

Throughout the world, countries are experiencing shortages of health care workers. Policy-makers and system managers have developed a range of methods and initiatives to optimise the available workforce and achieve the right number and mix of personnel needed to provide high-quality care. Our literature review found that such initiatives often focus more on staff types than on staff members' skills and the effective use of those skills. Our review describes evidence about the benefits and pitfalls of current approaches to human resources optimisation in health care. We conclude that in order to use human resources most effectively, health care organisations must consider a more systemic approach - one that accounts for factors beyond narrowly defined human resources management practices and includes organisational and institutional conditions